Scott Mendelson: Huff Post weekend box office in review (03/28/10).

Last Updated on Sunday, 28 March 2010 11:29 Written by Daisy Harley Sunday, 28 March 2010 11:29

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Maybe it really is a case of ‘it’s the movie, stupid’. After Avatar opened to $77 million and ended up the most successful movie ever by a huge margin, and after Alice in Wonderland opened with $116 million and ended up as one of the highest-grossing non-summer releases of all-time, the studios at large seemed to think that the answer was ’3D’. In the last months, every studio has rushed to proclaim that pretty much all of their upcoming tent-poles will be released in 3D prints alongside the traditional 2D ones. Some will be shot with 3D in mind (the stunning-looking Tron Legacy), while others will be converted after the fact (next weekend’s Clash of the Titans). Surely the reason that these films broke out was purely because they were being offered in 3D, not because of the innate appeal of the films themselves (a big-budget Tim Burton adaption of Alice in Wonderland with Johnny Depp and Anne Hathaway – who would want to see that?), or the top-flight marketing jobs performed by (respectively) 20th Century Fox and Walt Disney. No, it had to have been merely the 3D. Right? Well, maybe not so much…

This weekend‘s number one film was Dreamworks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon, which opened in 2D, 3D, and IMAX 3D theaters. Yet despite the rave reviews and would-be magic bullet of 3D, the picture pulled in just $43.3 million this weekend. That’s no small potatoes, but it’s $16 million below the opening weekend of Dreamworks’ Aliens Vs. Monsters. Heck, this opening is lower than the openings achieved by Dreamworks classics such as A Shark Tale and the first Madagascar ($47 million apiece). Adjusted for inflation and taking into account the higher 3D-ticket prices, this opening is more in line with Bee Movie and Over the Hedge ($37 million apiece). If I seem bitter, it’s because the reviews were dead-on, How to Train Your Dragon is the best film of the year thus far and a template on how to make good animated films (rich storytelling, beautiful visuals, real acting, no topical pop-culture references, etc) and a textbook case on how to use 3D to its fullest potential. I paid $16.50 for my 3D IMAX ticket and didn’t feel the least bit ripped-off.

So while it may be a good thing that studios realize that 3D will not make moviegoers rush to a film that they otherwise wouldn’t have much interest in, the question now becomes why moviegoers didn’t have much interest. As is often the case, marketing is to blame. The film stressed boy-friendly adventure, which is always a harder sell in family-friendly animation than cross-gender comedy. Monsters Vs. Aliens may have been a lousy movie, but it was advertised as harmless comedic amusement that wouldn’t terrify your wee ones and wouldn’t be too painful for you (those dreaded pop-culture references to play well to a general audience demo in trailers). By contrast, there was a real question about whether How to Train Your Dragon was too scary for kids under five or six, or whether it would have any real female appeal. Ironically, the token love interest is actually a fully-fleshed out character and she’s not the only female in the picture It may not be fair, but the old-fashioned quality of the latest Dreamworks entry may have been a disadvantage when came time to sell the picture, as there weren’t very many trailer-friendly moments to pick from without giving away major plot twists.

Having said that, spring break will be in full effect for the next couple weeks, so one can only hope that the word of mouth and weekdays that act like weekends for countless vacationing families can carry this $165 million picture across at least the $150 million mark. Much has been written over the last week regarding the rising ticket prices of both 3D and traditional theaters, and I sympathize with those who wonder if the studios are going to overestimate the willingness of cash-strapped moviegoers to shell out extra money for the 3D gimmick. Let me just say, as a critic and a moviegoer, this film is worth seeing in whatever format you or your family can afford. If you can splurge for 3D or IMAX 3D, do it. But this is a terrific and exciting adventure picture that will lose only a token of its power in a cheap 2D matinee. Having films like this or Over the Hedge under-perform while Monsters Vs. Aliens and A Shark Tale explode can only teach Dreamworks the wrong lessons. You wouldn’t want Dreamworks to make nothing but Shrek sequels or lowest-common denominator comedies anymore than you’d want Pixar to make nothing but sequels to Cars.

Third place went to the other wide-release debut, the accurately-titled Hot Tub Time Machine. The MGM comedy was inexplicably expected to gross around $20 million, so the perfectly reasonable $13.6 million debut is seen in some circles as a failure. Not so, as the picture was always going to play to a niche audience. The marketing campaign was downright goofy and the film’s trailers all-but put a sign on the door exclaiming ‘no slimy girls allowed!’. Like Snakes on a Plane, the goofy title led prognosticators to presume that it could break out beyond its specific demographic. MGM made the same mistake that New Line did with Snakes on a Plane, selling a movie as ‘so outrageous, you have to see it!’. Problem is, most people don’t pay first-run prices to see a movie that they are being told is ‘so bad it’s good!’. And, just like the Samuel L. Jackson thriller, the studio was unable to take advantage of the relatively positive notices that the picture received from critics. Still, the picture only cost $36 million, and the (theoretically unrated) DVD will likely sell like hotcakes when the time comes. Like usual, MGM now sits on the precipice of doom, waiting for the next James Bond picture to save its butt once again.

Second place went to last weekend’s top picture. Disney was able to keep 75% of its 3D screens for Alice in Wonderland, which allowed the picture to drop just 49% to gross $17 million over the weekend and end day twenty-four with a mammoth $293 million. The Tim Burton paycheck gig is now days away to becoming the eighth film not released in the summer months to cross $300 million. That Disney was able to keep a large majority of its 3D screens is a sign of the Mouse House clout, and it must add extra insult that it was able to damage the opening weekend of a Dreamworks animation debut. We’ll see how much it gives up next weekend when Clash of the Titans debuts in converted-at-the-last-minute 3D. Anyway, this film has surpassed The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe and Up to become Disney’s sixth highest-grossing film of all-time, just about $500,000 behind The Sixth Sense. By next weekend, it may well have leapfrogged Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl ($305 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($309 million), and possibly The Lion King ($312 million) to become Disney’s number three domestic grosser. And if this weekend’s animated debut taught us anything, Alice‘s massive success wasn’t really about the 3D.

Among limited release openings, the news was pretty grim all around. The heavily touted Atom Egoyan erotic thriller Chloe grossed only $1 million on 350 theaters for a lousy $2630 per-screen average. Let’s be honest, the appeal of watching Amanda Seyfried make out with Juliane Moore is strongest amongst viewers who would rather wait until DVD release so they can enjoy such things in the comfort of their home. The documentary Waking Sleeping Beauty, chronicling the rebirth of Disney animation from the mid-80s to the mid-90s, opened in five screens and grossed just $6,620 per screen. The film was given next-to-no publicity and I can only wonder if it covers much of the same material dealt with on the “Treasures Untold” documentary on the 2006 DVD release of The Little Mermaid. The fact that the DVD will allegedly contain 85-minutes of added material does not help matters, as why should one venture to a theater to see a documentary when they can wait for the DVD and basically get two documentaries for the price of one? No End In Sight had the same issue, with the 105-minute feature supplemented by 105-minutes of additional material.

Among holdovers, there is little unexpected to report. The Bounty Hunter dropped 40% after a ‘disappointing‘ $20 million opening weekend. The $40 million Jennifer Aniston/Gerard Butler comedy has now grossed $38 million. Diary of a Wimpy Kid proved a one-weekend wonder, as it plummeted 55% as a result of direct demo competition. Still, the $15 million picture has already amassed $36 million. Repo Men dropped 50% for $11 million domestic total, which is impressive considering how lousy it is. She’s Out of My League (-39% this weekend) is now at $25 million, The Green Zone (-45%) is at $30 million, and Shutter Island (-33%) is now at $120.6 million. Pity poor Avatar, which finally dropped out of the top-ten in its fifteenth weekend. On the plus side, it crossed the $740 million mark, so there’s that small comfort.

That’s all for this weekend. Join us next weekend when 3D again gets put to the test with the Warner Bros 3D-done-on-the-cheap spectacular, Clash of the Titans. Also opening is Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too and the Miley Cyrus melodrama, The Last Song (that one actually opens on Wednesday). It’s based on a Nicolas Sparks novel, so don’t expect a happy ending. Considering how well every demographic is being served, expect a big healthy Easter weekend at the box office.

Scott Mendelson

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Article source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/scott-mendelson/huff-post-weekend-box-off_b_516556.html

`Alice’ Still Reigns At Box Office, ‘Wimpy Kid’ Beats ‘Bounty Hunter’

Last Updated on Monday, 22 March 2010 11:45 Written by Daisy Harley Monday, 22 March 2010 11:45

LOS ANGELES — Alice remains the queen of the box office.

Johnny Depp and Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland” took in $34.5 million to remain the No. 1 movie for a third-straight weekend, according to studio estimates Sunday.

The Disney release raised its domestic haul to $265.8 million and its worldwide total to $565.8 million after just three weekends in theaters, a huge result for a film playing in the typically slow month of March.

“You rarely see this kind of domination by one movie at this time of year,” said Paul Dergarabedian, box-office analyst for Hollywood.com. “Normally at this time of year, films don’t make this kind of money, and they don’t hold in this long.”

“Alice in Wonderland” easily beat a rush of new movies led by 20th Century Fox’s family film “Diary of a Wimpy Kid,” which opened at No. 2 with $21.8 million. The movie is adapted from Jeff Kinney’s cartoon novel about a sixth grader maneuvering through the intricate social structure at his middle school, which includes its own “cooties” game known as the “cheese touch.”

“I think cheese touch equals magic touch at the box office,” said Chris Aronson, head of distribution at 20th Century Fox.

Debuting at No. 3 was Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler’s action comedy “The Bounty Hunter” with $21 million. Released by Sony, the movie follows a bounty hunter chasing his ex-wife, a reporter with an arrest warrant over her head after she misses a court date while pursuing a story.

“We had figured an estimate in the high teens, so 20-plus million is a good number for us,” said Rory Bruer, head of distribution for Sony.

Jude Law and Forest Whitaker’s action thriller “Repo Men” flopped with a No. 4 opening of $6.2 million. The Universal release features Law as a repo man on the run in a future where organs are bloodily repossessed if patients miss their payments.

In narrower release, Kristen Stewart and Dakota Fanning’s Joan Jett music drama “The Runaways” opened weakly with $803,629 in 244 theaters, averaging $3,294 a cinema.

That compared to an average of $9,229 in 3,739 theaters for “Alice in Wonderland,” $7,085 in 3,077 theaters for “Diary of a Wimpy Kid,” $6,831 in 3,074 cinemas for “The Bounty Hunter” and $2,440 in 2,521 locations for “Repo Men.”

Released by Apparition, “The Runaways” stars Stewart as Jett and Fanning as singer Cherie Currie as they opened doors for women rockers in the 1970s with an all-girl band.

Ben Stiller’s comic drama “Greenberg” premiered strongly in limited release, pulling in $120,432 in three theaters for a huge average of $40,144 a cinema.

Released by Focus Features, “Greenberg” stars Stiller as a neurotic whose mean tongue jeopardizes a budding romance with his brother’s personal assistant (Greta Gerwig).

James Cameron’s science-fiction blockbuster “Avatar” remained in the top 10 three months into its run. The 20th Century Fox release pulled in $4 million to raise its domestic total to $736.9 million. Worldwide, “Avatar” has taken in $2.67 billion.

“Alice in Wonderland” continued to lift overall Hollywood revenues, which came in at $130 million for the weekend, up 23 percent from the same weekend last year, when the thriller “Knowing” debuted at No. 1 with $24.6 million.

So far this year, domestic revenues are at $2.43 billion, up 10.3 percent over 2009′s, according to Hollywood.com. Factoring in higher ticket prices, movie attendance is 8.2 percent ahead of last year’s.

Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Hollywood.com. Final figures will be released Monday.

1. “Alice in Wonderland,” $34.5 million.

2. “Diary of a Wimpy Kid,” $21.8 million.

3. “The Bounty Hunter,” $21 million.

4. “Repo Men,” $6.2 million.

5. “She’s Out of My League,” $6 million.

6. “Green Zone,” $5.96 million.

7. “Shutter Island,” $4.8 million.

8. “Avatar,” $4 million.

9. “Our Family Wedding,” $3.8 million.

10. “Remember Me,” $3.3 million.

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On the Net:

http://www.hollywood.com/boxoffice

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Universal Pictures and Focus Features are owned by NBC Universal, a unit of General Electric Co.; Sony Pictures, Sony Screen Gems and Sony Pictures Classics are units of Sony Corp.; Paramount and Paramount Vantage are divisions of Viacom Inc.; Disney’s parent is The Walt Disney Co.; Miramax is a division of The Walt Disney Co.; 20th Century Fox, Fox Searchlight Pictures and Fox Atomic are owned by News Corp.; Warner Bros. and New Line are units of Time Warner Inc.; MGM is owned by a consortium of Providence Equity Partners, Texas Pacific Group, Sony Corp., Comcast Corp., DLJ Merchant Banking Partners and Quadrangle Group; Lionsgate is owned by Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.; IFC Films is owned by Rainbow Media Holdings, a subsidiary of Cablevision Systems Corp.; Rogue Pictures is owned by Relativity Media LLC; Overture Films is a subsidiary of Liberty Media Corp.

Article source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/22/alice-still-reigns-at-box_n_508306.html

Scott Mendelson: Weekend Box Office Review (03/21/10): Alice three-peats, Diary of A Wimpy Kid and The Bounty Hunter open well, Repo Men flops.

Last Updated on Sunday, 21 March 2010 01:29 Written by Daisy Harley Sunday, 21 March 2010 01:29

There was a multitude of new wide and limited releases this weekend, but the top of the box office remained the same, if only for one more weekend.  Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland again claimed the top spot, grossing $34.5 million with a somewhat reasonable 45% drop.  That’s the sixth-biggest third weekend of all-time.  It’s also Disney’s first threepeat since Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest back in July 2006.  Faced with genuine demo competition (see spots two and three below), the 3D fable still held its ground.  In just seventeen days, Tim Burton has a new top domestic grosser, as Alice In Wonderland ends today with $265.8 million, putting it $10 million over the $251.2 million gross of the original Batman.  Yes, inflation and 3D ticket prices can be taken into account, but that’s a personal best record that has held for nearly twenty-two years.  How ironic that in the days that Disney is panicking over the relative box office disappointment of The Princess and the Frog by attempting to man-up its future cartoons, that we have a female-driven, genuinely feminist adventure film that will likely out-gross every Disney cartoon ever made save for (possibly) The Lion King and Finding Nemo.  Yes, the film was sold as a Johnny Depp vehicle and emphasized action and adventure (not that those are male-only domains), but that only explains the opening weekend.  Right or wrong, the film’s female-empowerment angle is clearly appealing to the wide swath of moviegoers.

At this point, whether it gets to $300 million or $350 million and above is purely based on whether it can withstand the loss of its IMAX and 3D screens next weekend to the well-reviewed Dreamworks cartoon, How to Train Your Dragon.  Since I was so very wrong about Avatar sinking like a stone once Alice took said IMAX and 3D screens three weeks ago, I won’t even try to predict what will happen next weekend.  Simply put, if it survives the brutal one-two punch of How to Train Your Dragon and Clash of the Titans, it will likely flirt with $400 million and end up as one of the highest-grossing films of the year, if not the highest.  If it collapses under direct assault, it may unfortunately prove that 3D is in fact a gimmick that makes an otherwise solid hit into a mega-smash (as opposed to merely goosing the grosses of an already appealing project), which will only encourage studios to convert everything to 3D.  Warner Bros. just announced this week that all of their future tent-poles will be in 3D (although I’d imagine that Chris Nolan could shoot Batman 3 and/or Superman Rebooted on 4×3 black and white VHS without too much protest from the brass).  If Clash of the Titans breaks out, don’t be surprised if Warner decides to splurge and do a last-minute 3D conversion of Sex and the City 2.  Come what may, Avatar really was a game-changer after all.  As expected, Hollywood is learning all of the wrong lessons from that once-in-a-generation wonder.

The top opener of the weekend was Diary of a Wimpy Kid.  The live-action adaption of a popular kids-lit series pulled in $21.8 million, which was a shocking surprise unless you’re tired of being shocked and surprised when well-marketed kids flicks that are based on well-respected books happen to open well.  There is a solid audience for live-action family films that are appealing to kids and seem painless to adults, and this one fit the bill.  Besides, there hadn’t been a live-action family film since the odious Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief over Valentine’s Day weekend, and that one opened to over $30 million (current domestic total for Percy – $85 million).  Longterm prospects for this one are quite limited, if only for the 800-pound dragon (literally) breathing down its neck next weekend.  Still, this is a major profit earner for Fox and mazel tov to all involved.  In third place was The Bounty Hunter, which opened to $21 million.  I went into this in much detail yesterday, but $21 million is a rock-solid number both for the genre (romantic-comedy caper) and the stars involved (this is Aniston’s best opening for a film where she was top-billed on the poster).  The gender split was 58% female with a 50/50 age split for over/under 30 years.  Every box office pundit pegged this one as opening between $21 and $24 million, yet that didn’t stop Nikki Finke and others from calling the opening embarrassing, disappointing, etc.  Sometimes, it’s not the movie, it’s your math.

The last major opener was yet another crash and burn from the consistently unlucky Universal.  Repo Men, which was based on a novel which may or may not have ripped off Repo: The Genetic Opera, opened to just $6.2 million despite a solid cast (Jude Law, Forest Whitaker, Liev Schreiber), and the promise of hard R-rated action and violence.  The reviews were terrible and the marketing was bland and unappealing.  Alas, Jude Law was unable to capitalize on the audience goodwill from Sherlock Holmes.  Ironically, at a cost of just $32 million, this is just the kind of mid-level genre product that the studios should be making more of, yet the audience was just not there.  Still, the compatibility low cost will prevent the film from losing quite as much money for Universal compared to, I dunno, The Green Zone.  Oh right… fifth place went to The Green Zone, which plunged 58% for a second weekend of $5.9 million.  Unfairly tagged as liberal-propaganda, it failed to draw even the older movie goers that can sometimes lessen the second-weekend drop of such adult fare (since older audiences don’t always rush out on opening weekend), the $100 million Iraq war thriller has amassed just $24.7 million.  While some have piled on Matt Damon over the performances of his last few movies, The Informant! ($33 million) and Invictus ($37 million) were at least budgeted according to realistic box office expectations (Invictus cleaned up overseas, pulling in $120 million worldwide).

She’s Out of My League (which was surprisingly decent, more low-key and less vulgar that the marketing let on) fell 38% for a $6 million second weekend and a $19.9 million ten-day total.  It’s a shame it’s not doing better, but the Paramount picture cost under $20 million, so it’ll do just fine once all theatrical and home viewing money is tabulated.  Shutter Island is now at $115.7 million, and reaching the $132 million-domestic gross of The Departed is now a long shot, if only due to the theaters that it will bleed over the next two weekends (cough-more second run theaters-cough).  Robert Pattinson’s prank-movie, Remember Me, dropped 59%, for a $3.3 million-second weekend and a $13.9 million total.  Still, it’s a movie star’s job to open movies, not keep those movies in rotation (that’s the job of the movie itself).  The other holdover from last weekend, My Family’s Wedding, dropped 50% for a new total of $13.6 million.  Oh, and Avatar dropped 38% after losing 482 screens (it remains on only 1236 screens) for a new total of $736 million.  Barring a re-release at the end of this summer, it looks like $750 million may be the best case scenario.

In notable limited releases and expansions, Roman Polanski’s The Ghost Writer expanded to 819 theaters and scored $2.1 million for its trouble.  The low-key, ripped from the headlines thriller has now amassed $6.8 million, but the screen count has likely peaked at this point so $10 million seems to be a likely final cum.  The Marie Cherie/Joan Jett biopic The Runaways opened in limited release, grossing $803,000 on 244 screens.  The $3,291 per screen average is not promising, but Apparition still has time to market the Dakota Fanning/Kristen Stewart rock-melodrama as a mainstream entertainment for its April 9th wide release.  Still, the picture cost just $10 million, so anything other than an outright flop should be just fine for long-term profitability.  The IMAX exclusive Hubble 3D debuted with $453,000 on 39 screens for an $11,615 per screen average.  Numbers for Greenberg (three screens) and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (31 screens) will be added when they come in.

And that’s the news for this weekend.  Join us next weekend when Dreamworks unleashes How to Train Your Dragon and MGM debuts Hot Tub Time Machine. Until then, take care.

Scott Mendelson

Article source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/scott-mendelson/weekend-box-office-review_b_507463.html